Ottawa: Canada’s economy grew modestly in 2024, but the pace varied widely across provinces and territories. Some regions surged ahead on the back of resource wealth, while others slipped behind due to housing costs, trade exposure, or weak demographics. The Canada GDP by province picture highlights how uneven national growth really is.
Growth highlights from 2024
Every province recorded growth last year, with national real GDP rising around 1.6%. Resource-driven provinces and territories led the way, while some of the country’s largest economies grew more slowly.
- Newfoundland and Labrador: Enjoyed a rebound after two consecutive years of contraction, powered by offshore oil and gas.
- Nunavut: Surprised with near-double-digit growth, fueled by strong mining output.
- Yukon and Northwest Territories: Slipped into contraction, illustrating the volatility of small, resource-heavy economies.
Top performers (“winners”)
- Alberta and Saskatchewan: Continued to outpace the national average thanks to oil, gas, and agricultural exports.
- Nunavut: Nearly 7.5% GDP growth highlighted the strength of its mining sector.
- Newfoundland and Labrador: Benefited from energy projects and higher global demand for natural resources.
These provinces and territories demonstrate how resource markets remain a powerful driver of Canadian prosperity.
Slower performers (“laggards”)
- Ontario and British Columbia: Both grew below the national average. Manufacturing softness, high debt loads, and housing costs weighed heavily.
- Yukon and Northwest Territories: Economic contraction underscored dependence on volatile sectors and small populations.
While not in outright decline, large provinces like Ontario saw slower per-capita growth, revealing a drag from weak productivity despite strong population gains.
Structural realities
Canada’s headline GDP gains mask some troubling longer-term patterns. Most of the growth is population-driven, not productivity-led. On a per-capita basis, Canada has seen stagnant or even declining output compared with other advanced economies. Ontario, once the country’s economic engine, now struggles with some of the lowest per-person growth figures.
Looking ahead to 2025
- National outlook: Real GDP is expected to rise by roughly 1.8%, modest but steady.
- Regional shifts: Energy and mining provinces should continue to benefit from global demand, though much depends on commodity prices.
- Housing-heavy provinces: Ontario and British Columbia remain vulnerable to higher borrowing costs and weak affordability.
- Atlantic provinces: Smaller provinces like New Brunswick are expected to improve, helped by exports and government spending.
Summary Table
| Province / Territory | 2024 Growth Snapshot | 2025 Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| Newfoundland & Labrador | Strong rebound | Steady if energy demand holds |
| Nunavut | Outstanding (~7.5%) | Slower but still positive |
| Alberta / Saskatchewan | Above national average | Depends on oil, gas, and crops |
| Ontario / B.C. | Below national average | Modest recovery tied to housing, trade |
| Yukon / NWT | Contraction | Fragile, resource volatility key |
| New Brunswick | Modest growth | Upgraded outlook for 2025 |
Bottom line: The Canada GDP by province outlook for 2025 shows winners concentrated in resource-rich areas, while laggards remain tied to housing challenges and low productivity. For policymakers, the message is clear: Canada’s prosperity remains uneven, and growth will depend on balancing resource strength with broader economic diversification.
