The Liberals lead in 2025 federal election has grown stronger as the campaign nears its final stretch, according to the latest Nanos Research survey. On Day 27 of the 36-day campaign period, the Liberals are polling at 45 percent, an 8-point advantage over the Conservatives, who stand at 37 percent. This three-day rolling poll, conducted for CTV News and the Globe and Mail, indicates momentum building for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s party.
The data, collected up to April 17, 2025, suggests the Liberals have maintained consistent support despite early challenges, including economic concerns and immigration criticism. Meanwhile, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s campaign has struggled to close the gap, even with targeted messaging around affordability and tax reform.
The Liberals lead in 2025 federal election is being closely watched by analysts and voters alike, especially in battleground regions such as Ontario and British Columbia. These areas remain crucial for both major parties, and the latest numbers show significant Liberal traction among urban and younger demographics.
Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research, noted that the margin is significant but not insurmountable. “With nine days remaining, anything can happen. Voter turnout and final debates will be decisive,” he said. The poll’s margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points, giving the Conservatives a narrow window to recover before election day.
This lead may reflect the effectiveness of the Liberal campaign strategy, which has focused on healthcare expansion, climate commitments, and protecting minority rights. Trudeau has also emphasized stability and international partnerships, contrasting Poilievre’s more populist tone.
Though trailing, the Conservatives have not conceded ground. Their campaign has doubled down on cost-of-living promises, aggressively targeting swing voters. Meanwhile, the New Democratic Party (NDP) continues to hover below 10 percent nationally, with limited influence in shifting the top-tier battle.
As Canada’s federal election heads toward its final week, the Liberals lead in 2025 federal election sets the tone for high-stakes debates, last-minute rallies, and strategic pivots. Whether this lead translates to a renewed mandate will depend on voter mobilization and how both parties close out their campaigns.
